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White papers

Independent, data-led research from iEthico on how UK medicine markets behave: where supply pressure appears first, and how quickly value moves after generic entry.

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iethicoMEDICINE MARKET INTELLIGENCE · WHITE PAPERAhead of thePatent ExpiryThe Generic Value Half-Life: how quickly thevalue of early generic entry is disappearingAn independent, data-led analysis by iEthico17742MONTHS TO 50% DRUG TARIFF EROSION · FOUR UK GENERIC CLIFFS · 2022–2025iethicoFinal. Published September 2026.

NewPublished September 2026 · Medicine Market Intelligence

Ahead of the Patent Expiry

The Generic Value Half-Life: how quickly the value of early generic entry is disappearing

Across four successive UK generic cliffs, the Drug Tariff lost half its value faster each time. The paper follows prices on two clocks, what pharmacies paid and what the tariff reimbursed, and looks ahead to the eleven medicines approaching their core UK patent or SPC endpoints from October 2026.

  • 17 → 2months to 50% tariff erosion, apixaban (2022) to dapagliflozin (2025)
  • 96–99.5%observed acquisition-price erosion across the four cases
  • £1.42bn2025 NHS value of the next patent-expiry cohort
iethicoMEDICINE SUPPLY INTELLIGENCE · WHITE PAPERAhead of theConcessionHow connected medicine data predicts UKsupply pressure before it reaches reimbursementAn independent, data-led analysis by iEthicoMEDICINAL PRODUCTS RECEIVING PRICE CONCESSIONS · JAN 2025 – JUL 2026iethicoFull-month data complete to 31 July 2026. Published August 2026.

Published August 2026 · Medicine Supply Intelligence

Ahead of the Concession

How connected medicine data predicts UK supply pressure before it reaches reimbursement, and estimates what it will cost

Most UK price concessions have a visible history before they happen. The paper shows how international supply evidence, availability, quotations, completed orders and reimbursement move at different stages of the same episode, with four medicine case studies and out-of-time testing of iEthico's forward concession-risk models.

  • 198.7average monthly concessions Jan–Jul 2026, double the 2025 level
  • 73.6%of concessions had supply evidence in the prior six months
  • 83–85%precision of high-risk cohorts at 30, 90 and 180 days

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Questions about the research or how iEthico could support your organisation? Contact the iEthico Research team at data@iethico.com.

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